seasonalForecast
ENSO Forecast [ Mar to May ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
STRONG EL NINO
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have touched on El Niño thresholds for the past three weeks, while waters below the surface are also slightly warmer than average. Model predictions and expert opinion indicate a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2019.
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Dec to Feb
[Observed] |
Mar to May
[Forecast] |
Jun to Aug
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 34% | 39% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 39% | 38% | |
| Vava'u | 40% | 36% | |
| Ha'apai | 40% | 35% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 48% | 34% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Dec to Feb
[Observed] |
Mar to May
[Forecast] |
Jun to Aug
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 34% | 50% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 37% | 56% | |
| Vava'u | 44% | 42% | |
| Ha'apai | 47% | 38% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 50% | 54% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER