Seasonal Forecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Mar to May ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
43% (43%)
54% (54%)
3% (3%)

WEAK NEUTRAL

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

ENSO Outlook has returned to INACTIVE. An INACTIVE status means that ENSO is neutral and there are no clear indications that an El Niño or La Niña event will develop in the coming months. Climatologists are monitoring the tropical Pacific for any signs of developing ENSO events, regardless of the ENSO Outlook status.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Nov to Jan
[Observed]
Mar to May
[Forecast]
Jun to Aug
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 47% 36%
Ha'apai 39% 37%
Vava'u 40% 40%
Niuafo'ou 34% 44%
Niuatoputapu 36% 38%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER

Rainfall Advisory

For the next 3 to 6 months, we are expecting normal to above normal rainfall for all of Tonga.

>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Nov to Jan
[Observed]
Mar to May
[Forecast]
Jun to Aug
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 60% 70%
Ha'apai 60% 70%
Vava'u 57% 76%
Niuafo'ou 47% 76%
Niuatoputapu 47% 76%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER

Temperature Advisory

Expecting warmer than normal temperature over the next 3 to 6 months for all island groups