seasonalForecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Nov to Jan ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
0% (0%)
16% (16%)
84% (84%)

STRONG EL NINO

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The tropical Pacific Ocean made a significant transition towards El Niño conditions during October 2018. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific warmed during October and the SOI was slightly positive (=0.2). There is approximately more than 80% chance for El Niño conditions establishing during November 2018-January 2018..


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Aug to Oct
[Observed]
Nov to Jan
[Forecast]
Feb to Apr
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 45% 38%
Niuatoputapu 50% 45%
Vava'u 59% 43%
Ha'apai 64% 44%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 61% 36%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Aug to Oct
[Observed]
Nov to Jan
[Forecast]
Feb to Apr
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 40% 50%
Niuatoputapu 39% 56%
Vava'u 48% 40%
Ha'apai 43% 38%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 46% 50%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER