seasonalForecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Apr to Jun ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
0% (0%)
15% (15%)
85% (85%)

STRONG EL NINO

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño developing in the coming months is approximately 70% . Most climate models El Niño-like ocean temperatures during May and the cooling during winter.  This indicates that if El Niño does develop it is likely to be short lived and weak.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jan to Mar
[Observed]
Apr to Jun
[Forecast]
Jul to Sep
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 34% 44%
Niuatoputapu 36% 37%
Vava'u 45% 40%
Ha'apai 45% 48%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 57% 34%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jan to Mar
[Observed]
Apr to Jun
[Forecast]
Jul to Sep
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 34% 50%
Niuatoputapu 37% 56%
Vava'u 44% 42%
Ha'apai 47% 38%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 50% 54%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER