seasonalForecast
ENSO Forecast [ Feb to Apr ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
MEDIUM EL NINO
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral however the Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter. The current forecast is for warmer than average sea surface temperatures later in the year, means the possibility of El Niño remains.
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Nov to Jan
[Observed] |
Feb to Apr
[Forecast] |
May to Jul
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 39% | 38% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 40% | 38% | |
| Vava'u | 41% | 40% | |
| Ha'apai | 43% | 39% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 45% | 44% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Nov to Jan
[Observed] |
Feb to Apr
[Forecast] |
May to Jul
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 47% | 50% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 39% | 56% | |
| Vava'u | 44% | 42% | |
| Ha'apai | 47% | 38% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 50% | 54% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER