seasonalForecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Apr to Jun ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
4% (4%)
66% (66%)
30% (30%)

NEUTRAL

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) both remain neutral. trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are all at neutral levels. Most of the eight climate models surveyed indicate that ENSO is likely to stay neutral until at least mid June to August, however some models are suggesting the development of La Nina by late winter (June-August) period or early Spring (September—November) 2020.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jan to Mar
[Observed]
Apr to Jun
[Forecast]
Jul to Sep
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 35% 38%
Niuatoputapu 36% 37%
Vava'u 40% 35%
Ha'apai 39% 40%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 44% 36%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jan to Mar
[Observed]
Apr to Jun
[Forecast]
Jul to Sep
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 45% 59%
Niuatoputapu 44% 56%
Vava'u 44% 46%
Ha'apai 46% 50%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 44% 57%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER