Seasonal Forecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Nov to Jan ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
76% (76%)
24% (24%)
0% (0%)

MEDIUM LA NINA

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook from APEC Climate Center favors continuation of La Niña through winter, and carries a La Niña advisory.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jul to Sep
[Observed]
Nov to Jan
[Forecast]
Feb to Apr
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 64% 67%
Ha'apai 64% 67%
Vava'u 59% 57%
Niuafo'ou 50% 43%
Niuatoputapu 50% 43%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER

Rainfall Advisory

For the next 3 to 6 months, we are expecting wetter than normal rainfall for all of Tonga.

>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jul to Sep
[Observed]
Nov to Jan
[Forecast]
Feb to Apr
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 86% 80%
Ha'apai 86% 80%
Vava'u 86% 78%
Niuafo'ou 84% 67%
Niuatoputapu 84% 67%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER

Temperature Advisory

Expecting warmer than normal temperature over the next 3 to 6 months for all island groups