Seasonal Forecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Jun to Aug ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
5% (5%)
45% (45%)
50% (50%)

WEAK EL NINO

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, However the ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2017. Five climate models out of eight indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Feb to Apr
[Observed]
Jun to Aug
[Forecast]
Sep to Nov
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 34% 36%
Ha'apai 37% 39%
Vava'u 37% 39%
Niuafo'ou 36% 37%
Niuatoputapu 39% 38%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER

Rainfall Advisory

Expecting normal rainfall for whole of Tonga over the next 3 months with low confidence.

>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Feb to Apr
[Observed]
Jun to Aug
[Forecast]
Sep to Nov
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 75% 48%
Ha'apai 69% 47%
Vava'u 76% 45%
Niuafo'ou 86% 53%
Niuatoputapu 86% 53%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER

Temperature Advisory

Expecting warmer than normal temperature over the next 3 to 6 months for all island groups