seasonalForecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Mar to May ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
0% (0%)
20% (20%)
80% (80%)

STRONG EL NINO

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have touched on El Niño thresholds for the past three weeks, while waters below the surface are also slightly warmer than average. Model predictions and expert opinion indicate a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2019.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Dec to Feb
[Observed]
Mar to May
[Forecast]
Jun to Aug
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 34% 39%
Niuatoputapu 39% 38%
Vava'u 40% 36%
Ha'apai 40% 35%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 48% 34%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Dec to Feb
[Observed]
Mar to May
[Forecast]
Jun to Aug
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 34% 50%
Niuatoputapu 37% 56%
Vava'u 44% 42%
Ha'apai 47% 38%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 50% 54%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER