seasonalForecast
ENSO Forecast [ May to Jul ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
WEEK NEUTRAL
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. International models suggest it will remain neutral through at least winter. Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are close to average for this time of year, while cloudiness and winds are also near normal.
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Feb to Apr
[Observed] |
May to Jul
[Forecast] |
Aug to Oct
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 41% | 35% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 43% | 34% | |
| Vava'u | 40% | 35% | |
| Ha'apai | 37% | 39% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 47% | 45% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Feb to Apr
[Observed] |
May to Jul
[Forecast] |
Aug to Oct
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 47% | 76% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 47% | 76% | |
| Vava'u | 57% | 76% | |
| Ha'apai | 60% | 70% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 60% | 70% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER