seasonalForecast
ENSO Forecast [ Apr to Jun ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
NEUTRAL
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) both remain neutral. trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are all at neutral levels. Most of the eight climate models surveyed indicate that ENSO is likely to stay neutral until at least mid June to August, however some models are suggesting the development of La Nina by late winter (June-August) period or early Spring (September—November) 2020.
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Jan to Mar
[Observed] |
Apr to Jun
[Forecast] |
Jul to Sep
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 35% | 38% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 36% | 37% | |
| Vava'u | 40% | 35% | |
| Ha'apai | 39% | 40% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 44% | 36% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Jan to Mar
[Observed] |
Apr to Jun
[Forecast] |
Jul to Sep
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 45% | 59% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 44% | 56% | |
| Vava'u | 44% | 46% | |
| Ha'apai | 46% | 50% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 44% | 57% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER