Seasonal Forecast
ENSO Forecast [ Jun to Aug ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
WEAK EL NINO
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, However the ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2017. Five climate models out of eight indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017.
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group | Feb to Apr [Observed] |
Jun to Aug [Forecast] |
Sep to Nov [Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 34% | 36% | |
| Ha'apai | 37% | 39% | |
| Vava'u | 37% | 39% | |
| Niuafo'ou | 36% | 37% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 39% | 38% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
Rainfall Advisory
Expecting normal rainfall for whole of Tonga over the next 3 months with low confidence.
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group | Feb to Apr [Observed] |
Jun to Aug [Forecast] |
Sep to Nov [Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 75% | 48% | |
| Ha'apai | 69% | 47% | |
| Vava'u | 76% | 45% | |
| Niuafo'ou | 86% | 53% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 86% | 53% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER
Temperature Advisory
Expecting warmer than normal temperature over the next 3 to 6 months for all island groups