seasonalForecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Feb to Apr ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
1% (1%)
34% (34%)
65% (65%)

MEDIUM EL NINO

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral however the Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter. The current forecast is for warmer than average sea surface temperatures later in the year, means the possibility of El Niño remains.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Nov to Jan
[Observed]
Feb to Apr
[Forecast]
May to Jul
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 39% 38%
Niuatoputapu 40% 38%
Vava'u 41% 40%
Ha'apai 43% 39%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 45% 44%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Nov to Jan
[Observed]
Feb to Apr
[Forecast]
May to Jul
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 47% 50%
Niuatoputapu 39% 56%
Vava'u 44% 42%
Ha'apai 47% 38%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 50% 54%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER