seasonalForecast
ENSO Forecast [ Nov to Jan ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
STRONG EL NINO
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
The tropical Pacific Ocean made a significant transition towards El Niño conditions during October 2018. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific warmed during October and the SOI was slightly positive (=0.2). There is approximately more than 80% chance for El Niño conditions establishing during November 2018-January 2018..
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Aug to Oct
[Observed] |
Nov to Jan
[Forecast] |
Feb to Apr
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 45% | 38% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 50% | 45% | |
| Vava'u | 59% | 43% | |
| Ha'apai | 64% | 44% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 61% | 36% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Aug to Oct
[Observed] |
Nov to Jan
[Forecast] |
Feb to Apr
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 40% | 50% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 39% | 56% | |
| Vava'u | 48% | 40% | |
| Ha'apai | 43% | 38% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 46% | 50% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER