seasonalForecast
ENSO Forecast [ Sep to Nov ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
MEDIUM EL NINO
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in the tropical Pacific during August 2018. The Southern Oscillation Index was negative at -0.9 (i.e. on the El Nino side) in August. 62% chance for El Nino conditions to emerge during September-November 2018. 78% chance for El Nino conditions during March-May 2019.
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Jun to Aug
[Observed] |
Sep to Nov
[Forecast] |
Dec to Feb
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 37% | 36% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 40% | 40% | |
| Vava'u | 40% | 41% | |
| Ha'apai | 38% | 41% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 36% | 37% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Jun to Aug
[Observed] |
Sep to Nov
[Forecast] |
Dec to Feb
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 47% | 50% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 47% | 76% | |
| Vava'u | 40% | 76% | |
| Ha'apai | 38% | 70% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 38% | 70% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER