Seasonal Forecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Apr to Jun ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
4% (4%)
62% (62%)
34% (34%)

NEUTRAL

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral, with all ENSO indicators currently within the ENSO-neutral range.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Dec to Feb
[Observed]
Apr to Jun
[Forecast]
Jul to Sep
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 42% 36%
Ha'apai 42% 36%
Vava'u 35% 42%
Niuafo'ou 37% 48%
Niuatoputapu 37% 48%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER

Rainfall Advisory

Expecting drier than normal rainfall for Tongatapu and 'Eua, Ha'api, and Vava'u, and normal rainfall for Niuafo'ou and Niuatoputapu over the next 3 months with low confidence.

>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Dec to Feb
[Observed]
Apr to Jun
[Forecast]
Jul to Sep
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 69% 47%
Ha'apai 69% 47%
Vava'u 76% 45%
Niuafo'ou 86% 53%
Niuatoputapu 86% 53%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER

Temperature Advisory

Expecting warmer than normal temperature over the next 3 to 6 months for all island groups