seasonalForecast
ENSO Forecast [ Apr to Jun ]
LA NINA
NEUTRAL
EL NINO
STRONG EL NINO
Provided by APEC Climate Center
ENSO Advisory
ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño developing in the coming months is approximately 70% . Most climate models El Niño-like ocean temperatures during May and the cooling during winter. This indicates that if El Niño does develop it is likely to be short lived and weak.
Seasonal Forecast
>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Jan to Mar
[Observed] |
Apr to Jun
[Forecast] |
Jul to Sep
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 34% | 44% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 36% | 37% | |
| Vava'u | 45% | 40% | |
| Ha'apai | 45% | 48% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 57% | 34% |
DRIER
NORMAL
WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
| Island Group |
Jan to Mar
[Observed] |
Apr to Jun
[Forecast] |
Jul to Sep
[Forecast] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niuafo'ou | 34% | 50% | |
| Niuatoputapu | 37% | 56% | |
| Vava'u | 44% | 42% | |
| Ha'apai | 47% | 38% | |
| Tongatapu and 'Eua | 50% | 54% |
WARMER
NORMAL
COOLER