Seasonal Forecast

 ENSO Forecast [ May to Jul ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
4% (4%)
62% (62%)
34% (34%)

NEUTRAL

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have steadily warmed since the start of the year and is likely to continue in the coming months. Most climate models indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jan to Mar
[Observed]
May to Jul
[Forecast]
Aug to Oct
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 38% 34%
Ha'apai 34% 34%
Vava'u 34% 34%
Niuafo'ou 34% 34%
Niuatoputapu 35% 34%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER

Rainfall Advisory

Expecting normal rainfall for whole of Tonga over the next 3 months with low confidence.

>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jan to Mar
[Observed]
May to Jul
[Forecast]
Aug to Oct
[Forecast]
Tongatapu and 'Eua 75% 48%
Ha'apai 69% 47%
Vava'u 76% 45%
Niuafo'ou 86% 53%
Niuatoputapu 86% 53%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER

Temperature Advisory

Expecting warmer than normal temperature over the next 3 to 6 months for all island groups