seasonalForecast

 ENSO Forecast [ Sep to Nov ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
1% (1%)
37% (37%)
62% (62%)

MEDIUM EL NINO

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in the tropical Pacific during August 2018. The Southern Oscillation Index was negative at -0.9 (i.e. on the El Nino side) in August. 62% chance for El Nino conditions to emerge during September-November 2018. 78% chance for El Nino conditions during March-May 2019.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jun to Aug
[Observed]
Sep to Nov
[Forecast]
Dec to Feb
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 37% 36%
Niuatoputapu 40% 40%
Vava'u 40% 41%
Ha'apai 38% 41%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 36% 37%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Jun to Aug
[Observed]
Sep to Nov
[Forecast]
Dec to Feb
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 47% 50%
Niuatoputapu 47% 76%
Vava'u 40% 76%
Ha'apai 38% 70%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 38% 70%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER