seasonalForecast

 ENSO Forecast [ May to Jul ]

 LA NINA NEUTRAL EL NINO
25% (25%)
50% (50%)
25% (25%)

WEEK NEUTRAL

Provided by APEC Climate Center

ENSO Advisory

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. International models suggest it will remain neutral through at least winter. Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are close to average for this time of year, while cloudiness and winds are also near normal.


 Seasonal Forecast

>> Analysis of RAINFALL in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Feb to Apr
[Observed]
May to Jul
[Forecast]
Aug to Oct
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 41% 35%
Niuatoputapu 43% 34%
Vava'u 40% 35%
Ha'apai 37% 39%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 47% 45%
 DRIER NORMAL WETTER
>> Analysis of TEMPERATURE in last 3 months and forecasts for next 6 months
Island Group Feb to Apr
[Observed]
May to Jul
[Forecast]
Aug to Oct
[Forecast]
Niuafo'ou 47% 76%
Niuatoputapu 47% 76%
Vava'u 57% 76%
Ha'apai 60% 70%
Tongatapu and 'Eua 60% 70%
 WARMER NORMAL COOLER